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The Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance, signaling a slower pace of interest rate cuts, has led to a surge in the US dollar, causing significant pressure on major currency pairs like AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. Traders are adjusting positions as the dollar strengthens, with AUD/USD nearing 2 ¼ year lows and USD/JPY sensitive to the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan. Market expectations now reflect a reduced outlook for rate cuts in 2025, influenced by strong US inflation and economic indicators.
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Bitcoin's price briefly dipped below $100,000 following the Federal Reserve's cautious outlook on interest rate cuts, dropping to $98,760 before recovering. Despite this volatility, the cryptocurrency remains up about 50% since the US elections, buoyed by optimism around regulatory changes. Analysts suggest that Bitcoin must surpass $105,400 to shift the current bearish sentiment, while concerns about persistent inflation continue to loom.
The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point, bringing the range to 4.25 to 4.50 percent, amid rising inflation concerns and increasing uncertainty about the US economy. While 227,000 new non-farm jobs were created, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent. Investors are now focused on upcoming GDP data and consumer confidence indicators.
IG
World shares are reacting to a selloff on Wall Street following indications from the Federal Reserve about potential rate cuts in 2025. This shift in sentiment reflects broader concerns in the global market as investors adjust their expectations.
U.S. stocks are poised to recover some losses after a significant selloff, with futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 121 points, or 0.3%. This comes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that persistent inflation means deep rate cuts are unlikely next year, contributing to a 1,100-point drop in the Dow on Wednesday, marking its longest losing streak in 50 years.
EUR/USD has dropped to a two-year low below $1.04 following a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which cut rates by 25 basis points but significantly lowered its rate cut expectations for next year. The market anticipates a soft PCE inflation report, which could influence the currency's movement.Currently, EUR/USD is consolidating at the bottom of its long-term range, with a critical level at $1.04. A close below this level could signal a bearish outlook, while a bounce could target the 200-session moving average around $1.08.
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UBS forecasts gold prices will surge to $2,900/oz by the end of 2025, driven by central banks' increased gold purchases and rising demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties. The firm anticipates 982 metric tons of gold will be bought in 2024, significantly above the post-2011 average. Additionally, a weaker dollar and ongoing investments in transition metals are expected to further boost market dynamics.
Market participants are adopting a defensive stance ahead of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed to return rates to neutral amid rising unemployment and stagnant inflation. The US dollar shows resilience despite less hawkish Fed rate bets, while the EUR/USD faces downside risks unless it breaks above 1.062. Meanwhile, diminished BoJ rate-hike expectations are weighing on the yen, with USD/JPY maintaining upward momentum within a rising channel.
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UBS forecasts gold prices will reach $2,900 per ounce by the end of 2025, driven by rising central bank and investor demand, lower interest rates, and a weaker U.S. dollar. Despite a recent decline, gold remains 28% higher year-to-date, with expectations of continued strong buying momentum amid geopolitical uncertainties. The firm anticipates central banks will purchase over 900 metric tons of gold in 2025, supporting a bullish outlook for the metal.
U.S. stocks experienced volatility on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a quarter-point rate cut, which was anticipated. The Fed's updated projections indicated higher inflation and fewer rate cuts expected in 2025, leading to a downturn in the markets.
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